Surely This Leader Will Go
July 24, 2017
The political conflagration that burns brightly in Washington DC shows no sign of abating, but for real political uncertainty you should look across the Atlantic at the UK. Last summer, the shock outcome of the referendum on UK’s European Union membership catapulted Theresa May into her current role of Prime Minister. Since then, pretty much everything has gone badly for her, culminating in her decision to call a “snap” election in an effort to boost her power. The results did quite the opposite.
Her primary political opponent, Jeremy Corbyn, underwent a physical and political makeover (think Bernie Sanders taming his hair, wearing a nice suit and tie, and being charming), appealed to young people, and managed to improve significantly the position of his Labor Party in Parliament. Ms. May still hangs on, but it is a white knuckle grip.
In the US, any uncertainty in political leadership generates much media froth, but generally the real people, and the real economy, simply get on with business. Neither President Obama nor President Trump can credibly claim to be behind the latest rejuvenation of our economy. By comparison, the current political situation in the UK clearly bears down hard on people and business.
The economic data is not kind. After a reasonable period following the Brexit referendum, this year has been poor for UK growth, the pound continues to be cheap (which sacrilegiously has raised the price of that spreadable black gold known as Marmite), job and earnings growth has slowed, and inflation is picking up.
On a more anecdotal basis, media reports suggest many financial firms will leave London because of Brexit, the housing market is depressed, and it is hard to find anyone who believes that Ms. May is taking the country in the right direction. Those favoring leaving the European Union are unhappy with progress, while those wishing to stay have both grown in number and are somewhat irrationally hopeful that Brexit will be much watered down.
While I was in England over these past couple of weeks, I walked round a number of English towns, most of which were in affluent areas. The most striking observation on my perambulations was the incredibly high number of “charity thrift shops” (stores selling second hand stuff which had been donated, similar to our Goodwill). In one very attractive town, I counted no less than eight thrift stores within a 75 yard radius. Moreover, my English companions were delighted to spend what seemed like hours looking for a bargain. There may be a positive explanation for the growth of thrift stores, but it did feel like some town centers are now dependent on them for survival.
Ms. May has attracted some stereotypical comparisons with Margaret Thatcher (they are both women – get it?), but in reality Ms. May does not have the resolve, vision, or intellectual conviction of the first female British Prime Minister. Those qualities are needed now. As the British sink deeper into uncertainty and pessimism, the demand for a fresh approach at the top of the political pile will only grow.
Richard Rushton
