Monthly Archives: January 2014

Black Swan Event – Hardly

Black Swan Event - HardlyPrior to this week there was a prevailing and broad consensus that the outlook for 2014 was good. Economic numbers had born out the improvement.  And yet in what could best be described as a blitzkrieg on the global markets, uncertainty raised its ugly head.  When the market shifts attitude in a blink of an eye, investors will, and should, take notice.  With this week’s surprisingly fast global sell off we should step back and analyze the factors that caused it.  The down move this week was not caused by disappointing corporate earnings – the issue of which the market had been most fearful at the start of the week.  Beginning on Monday the market was preparing for the onslaught of corporate earnings. By Friday’s close earnings were a distant footnote to this week’s movement as issues in Turkey, Argentina, and China garnered the spotlight that created what one financial writer described as a “contagion” in the global markets.

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